Honors Thesis Archive
Author | Rachel Remias |
---|---|
Title | President Trump’s Tweets and their Effect on the Stock Market: The Relationship Between Social Media, Politics, and Emotional Economic Decision-Making |
Department | Business & Political Science |
Advisors | Ed Hasecke and Rachel Wilson |
Year | 2021 |
Honors | University Honors |
Full Text | (1170 KB) |
Abstract | This paper analyzes the role of social media in politics through the lens of emotional economic decision-making and hypothesizes that Donald Trump’s short and impassioned tweets generate an instant emotional reaction from stockholders stemming from a sustained sense of uncertainty and anxiety about political and economic stability which results in immediate, but short-term, volatility within the stock market. This study categorizes Trump’s tweets based on high-level content to analyze whether short-term, intraday change in the S&P 500 responds more significantly to time-lag value indicators or the category of content of Trump’s tweets. A series of multiple linear regressions analyzing the relationship between minute-level intraday S&P 500 data and policy-related tweet content categorizations were run with results generally yielding little statistical significance. Despite a lack of substantiated results to support the overarching hypotheses, the prevalence of emotion in economic decision-making cannot be ignored. |
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